Beyond Adaptive Management: How Uncertainty Shapes Ecologists' Contribution to Management
Speaker: Andrew Tyre
Associate Professor, SNR | UNL
Time: 3:30:00 PM
Location: 107 Hardin Hall
Making decisions about resource use in the face of uncertainty about the responses of threatened species to that use is hard. And controversial. And it absolutely needs good science, but so often that science is ignored. Making decisions under uncertainty is a core component of Adaptive management under all definitions. However, not all forms of uncertainty, or as I'll call it, indeterminism, are amenable to reduction by the application of the scientific method. Irreducible uncertainty is here to stay. Moreover, the presence of some forms of uncertainty constrains when science can make policy recommendations that stick. We outline a roadmap for determining when science can stick, and describe what to do when it won't.
Dr. Tyre is Associate Professor of Wildlife Ecology and Human Dimensions. His main area of interest revolves around helping people to make good wildlife management decisions, especially when very little is known about the wildlife population. People often know particularly little about threatened and endangered species, and yet must make many decisions about such species. Drew frames these problems to identify "robust" decisions that ensure good outcomes even when we use inaccurate information. Currently, he is using "prototype" models of habitat and population dynamics to guide decisions about habitat management for Interior Least Terns, Piping Plovers, and other threatened and endangered species. He builds these models together with small groups of managers and stakeholders to directly incorporate their objectives into the modeling process. By involving the decision makers in the process of predicting the consequences of their decisions, they accept the recommendations emerging from the decision support process much more readily.